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Kenya

Flood-prone during El Niño

East Africa · -1.29, 36.82

El Niño / La Niña impact — currently El Niño conditions emerging

El Niño · active now

Enhanced "short rains" (Oct–Dec): flooding, landslides, locust-favourable conditions.

La Niña

Suppressed short rains; drought across the Horn of Africa.

Global ENSO tracker ↗

7-day forecast — Kenya

Open-Meteo

Settled week ahead — highs near 28°, little rain (2mm total). No weather precautions needed.

Sat

Cloudy

25° / 14°

💧 12% · 0mm

🌬 17 km/h

Sun

Drizzle

25° / 14°

💧 67% · 1mm

🌬 17 km/h

Mon

Drizzle

25° / 14°

💧 25% · 0mm

🌬 15 km/h

Tue

Drizzle

26° / 14°

💧 22% · 0mm

🌬 13 km/h

Wed

Cloudy

27° / 12°

💧 2% · 0mm

🌬 12 km/h

Thu

Drizzle

28° / 15°

💧 10% · 0mm

🌬 16 km/h

Fri

Clear

26° / 14°

💧 1% · 0mm

🌬 10 km/h

🌡️

7-day temperature outlook

AI weather ensemble · Kenya

ECMWF · 50 members
Moderate confidence· why?
  • Ensemble members strongly agree — the forecast range is tight.
  • This region has fewer ground weather stations than the global average, so AI and physics models alike are less precise here.

Forecasts for this region carry more uncertainty. Global weather models are trained on sensor networks that are sparse here — a known limitation that affects every AI forecast, not just ours. We label it openly so you can weight official local warnings accordingly. We will never show you false confidence to look more polished.

Plan for the upper end of the range and follow official local authorities for confirmed warnings.

80% range (P10–P90) across all members — how sure, not a single guess.
Tue
24° (2325°)
Wed
25° (2426°)
Thu
25° (2426°)
Fri
25° (2426°)
Sat
25° (2426°)
Sun
25° (2326°)
Mon
25° (2326°)
23°│ marks the most-likely temperature26°

Model comparison — Kenya

4 models · daily max °C
ModelSatSunMonTueWed
ECMWF2525252627
GFS2525262828
ICON23
GEM2425242525
Spread±2±1±2±3±4

Spread = warmest−coolest model mean per day. Small spread → models agree (higher confidence); large → genuine uncertainty.

Emergency resources

Kenya · call now or find nearby

ACTIVE EVENTS — Kenya (0)

No active events recorded in Kenya right now.

How to prepare

Full guide ↗

Flooding

El Niño / La Niña can drive heavy rainfall, river and flash flooding, and landslides.

Before

  • Know if you are in a flood-prone or low-lying area; plan a route to higher ground.
  • Move valuables and electrics above expected flood level; prepare sandbags if available.
  • Charge phones and keep your go-bag ready when heavy rain is forecast.

During

  • Turn Around, Don’t Drown — never walk, swim or drive through flood water (15 cm can knock you down, 60 cm floats a car).
  • Move to higher ground immediately if told to evacuate; avoid bridges over fast water.
  • Stay away from downed power lines; assume water is contaminated.

After

  • Return only when authorities say it is safe; watch for weakened structures.
  • Do not use wet electrical devices; boil/treat water until declared safe.
  • Document damage with photos for aid/insurance.

Tropical cyclone / storm surge

ENSO shifts where cyclones form and track; some regions see more intense storms and surge.

Before

  • Know your evacuation zone and route; reinforce/secure roof, windows and loose objects.
  • Prepare your kit, fuel and cash before the storm; agree when you will leave.
  • Follow the official storm category and warnings — do not wait for the eye to pass.

During

  • Shelter in a small, windowless interior room on the lowest safe floor.
  • Stay indoors during the calm "eye" — winds return suddenly from the opposite direction.
  • Evacuate early if in a surge zone; surge, not wind, causes most deaths.

After

  • Beware downed lines, gas leaks, and flood water; do not sightsee.
  • Use generators outdoors only — carbon-monoxide kills.