El Niño / La Niña — live tracker
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the single biggest driver of year-to-year climate swings worldwide — shifting drought, flood, cyclone and fire risk across continents. Here is the real, official state of the Pacific, updated from NOAA.
El Niño / La Niña — ENSO
NOAA CPC — Oceanic Niño Index · liveEl Niño is developing
The central Pacific Ocean is moderate warmer than normal. That extra ocean heat moves where storms form and where rain falls — right across the planet.
What this usually means: Typically this brings drought and fire risk to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa and the Amazon; heavier rain to the southern US, the Horn of Africa and parts of South America; and a quieter Atlantic hurricane season.
▸ The science behind it (live data)
El Niño and La Niña are the two opposite moods of the Pacific Ocean. They tilt rainfall, droughts, floods and storms all over the world — the single biggest driver of year-to-year weather swings. This is where we are right now.
ONI warming over ~6 months (NDJ 2025: -0.60°C → MJJ 2026: +1.39°C). Currently 0.89°C above the El Niño threshold.
This week — Pacific sea-surface temperature vs normal
Niño 1+2
+4.1°
Off Peru & Ecuador
Niño 3
+2.8°
Eastern Pacific
Niño 3.4
+2.3°
ENSO index region
Niño 4
+1.0°
Central Pacific
Official forecast · IRI / NOAA CPC · as published May 2026
⚠ This is the May 2026 forecast snapshot — a newer official forecast has likely been issued. Confirm the current outlook at the source below.
MJO — Madden-Julian Oscillation
BoM — Wheeler-Hendon RMM indexCurrent
Phase 7 · Weak / incoherent
Western Pacific · amplitude 0.13
RMM1 -0.00 · RMM2 0.13 · 2024-02-24
The MJO is the dominant sub-seasonal pulse of tropical rain. An active phase over the Maritime Continent / West Pacific favours cyclone bursts and monsoon surges; the trail shows the pulse moving eastward.
SOI — Southern Oscillation Index (atmospheric half of ENSO)
-2.4weak Walker circulation — El Niño-favouring· Jul 2026 · NOAA CPC
The SOI measures the Tahiti−Darwin pressure see-saw. Strong positive values mean vigorous trade winds (La Niña-favouring); strong negative values signal a weakening Walker circulation (El Niño-favouring).
SUBSURFACE OCEAN & KELVIN WAVES — the fuel behind El Niño
Warm-water volume and downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves in the deep Pacific lead surface El Niño by weeks to months. Live authoritative monitoring:
ONI HISTORY — recent seasons (3-month running SST anomaly, Niño 3.4)
WHAT THIS MEANS
- El Niño (ONI ≥ +0.5°C for 5 seasons): warmer central/eastern Pacific. Tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes, drive drought in SE Asia/Australia, and floods on the South American coast.
- La Niña (ONI ≤ −0.5°C): cooler Pacific. Tends to boost Atlantic hurricane activity and flooding across SE Asia/Australia.
- Neutral: between thresholds — other drivers (MJO, IOD) dominate.
Sources: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index & weekly SST · IRI/CPC probabilistic forecast. This platform supplements official advisories; always follow NOAA CPC and your national meteorological service.