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Madagascar

Drought-prone during El Niño

East Africa · -18.88, 47.51

El Niño / La Niña impact — currently El Niño conditions emerging

El Niño · active now

Drier south; drought and food insecurity.

La Niña

Wetter; cyclone and flooding risk.

Global ENSO tracker ↗

7-day forecast — Madagascar

Open-Meteo

Mostly dry with rain Sun (13mm). Carry rain gear that day.

Mon

Drizzle

24° / 11°

💧 80% · 1mm

🌬 14 km/h

Tue

Drizzle

26° / 13°

💧 100% · 2mm

🌬 15 km/h

Wed

Drizzle

28° / 14°

💧 71% · 0mm

🌬 18 km/h

Thu

Drizzle

28° / 14°

💧 82% · 1mm

🌬 15 km/h

Fri

Drizzle

26° / 14°

💧 33% · 1mm

🌬 13 km/h

Sat

Showers

26° / 14°

💧 60% · 6mm

🌬 12 km/h

Sun

Showers

20° / 14°

💧 84% · 13mm

🌬 21 km/h

🌡️

7-day temperature outlook

AI weather ensemble · Madagascar

ECMWF · 50 members
Moderate confidence· why?
  • Ensemble members strongly agree — the forecast range is tight.
  • This region has fewer ground weather stations than the global average, so AI and physics models alike are less precise here.

Forecasts for this region carry more uncertainty. Global weather models are trained on sensor networks that are sparse here — a known limitation that affects every AI forecast, not just ours. We label it openly so you can weight official local warnings accordingly. We will never show you false confidence to look more polished.

Plan for the upper end of the range and follow official local authorities for confirmed warnings.

80% range (P10–P90) across all members — how sure, not a single guess.
Tue
27° (2628°)
Wed
28° (2729°)
Thu
27° (2629°)
Fri
26° (2527°)
Sat
25° (2426°)
Sun
25° (2427°)
Mon
26° (2428°)
24°│ marks the most-likely temperature29°

Model comparison — Madagascar

4 models · daily max °C
ModelTueWedThuFriSat
ECMWF2728272625
GFS2828262525
ICON2626262424
GEM2726272727
Spread±2±2±2±3±3

Spread = warmest−coolest model mean per day. Small spread → models agree (higher confidence); large → genuine uncertainty.

Emergency resources

Madagascar · call now or find nearby

ACTIVE EVENTS — Madagascar (2)

  • MINORwildfire
    1h ago
    Active fire — 167 MW

    📍 Ambohitrandriana, Madagascar

    ◐ Unconfirmed · single source
    Source: FIRMS · updated 1h ago
  • MINORwildfire
    1h ago
    Active fire — 157 MW

    📍 Matsakabanja, Madagascar

    ◐ Unconfirmed · single source
    Source: FIRMS · updated 1h ago

How to prepare

Full guide ↗

Drought & water scarcity

El Niño can bring prolonged dry spells, crop failure, water and energy stress, and wildfire conditions.

Before

  • Store water and prioritise drinking/cooking use; fix leaks.
  • Plant drought-tolerant crops; conserve soil moisture (mulching).
  • Track official seasonal forecasts and water-restriction notices.

During

  • Follow water-rationing rules; reuse greywater for plants where safe.
  • Protect livestock with shade and water; reduce herd if advised.
  • Watch for heat and wildfire risk that often accompany drought.

After

  • Rebuild water stores before the next dry season.
  • Assess soil and replant with resilient varieties.

Extreme heat

El Niño years frequently bring record heat, dangerous to health, agriculture and energy.

Before

  • Identify cool places (air-conditioned buildings) you can reach.
  • Check on elderly, infants, outdoor workers and people with chronic illness.
  • Never leave children or pets in parked vehicles.

During

  • Drink water regularly even before you feel thirsty; avoid alcohol and heavy meals.
  • Stay indoors during peak heat; wear light, loose clothing; limit exertion.
  • Know heat-stroke signs (confusion, hot/dry skin, fainting) — call emergency services and cool the person.

After

  • Keep hydrating; watch vulnerable people for delayed heat illness.

Wildfire & smoke

Drought and heat raise wildfire risk; smoke (PM2.5) harms health far from the fire.

Before

  • Create defensible space — clear dry vegetation around buildings.
  • Prepare N95/FFP2 masks and a plan to seal indoor air; ready a go-bag.
  • Sign up for local fire alerts and know multiple evacuation routes.

During

  • Evacuate early when told — fire moves faster than you expect.
  • If trapped by smoke, stay indoors, close windows, run air filtration; wear N95 outdoors.
  • Check live air-quality (AQI) before any outdoor activity.

After

  • Return only when cleared; watch for hotspots, ash and weakened trees.
  • Keep masks on during clean-up; ash can be toxic.