El Niño / La Niña impact — currently El Niño conditions emerging
El Niño · active now
Drier; shifted cyclone risk.
La Niña
Wetter; elevated cyclone risk.
7-day forecast — Tonga
Open-MeteoSettled week ahead — highs near 24°, little rain (6mm total). No weather precautions needed.
Mon
Cloudy
24° / 19°
💧 2% · 0mm
🌬 20 km/h
Tue
Drizzle
23° / 20°
💧 10% · 1mm
🌬 18 km/h
Wed
Drizzle
24° / 20°
💧 6% · 1mm
🌬 18 km/h
Thu
Mostly sunny
24° / 19°
💧 4% · 0mm
🌬 20 km/h
Fri
Drizzle
22° / 20°
💧 35% · 3mm
🌬 35 km/h
Sat
Drizzle
21° / 19°
💧 29% · 1mm
🌬 31 km/h
Sun
Mostly sunny
22° / 19°
💧 18% · 0mm
🌬 24 km/h
7-day temperature outlook
AI weather ensemble · Tonga
High confidence· why?
- Ensemble members strongly agree — the forecast range is tight.
Plan for the upper end of the range and follow official local authorities for confirmed warnings.
Model comparison — Tonga
4 models · daily max °C| Model | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 22 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| GFS | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| ICON | 23 | 23 | 22 | — | — |
| GEM | 22 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Spread | ±2 | ±2 | ±2 | ±1 | ±1 |
Spread = warmest−coolest model mean per day. Small spread → models agree (higher confidence); large → genuine uncertainty.
Emergency resources
Tonga · call now or find nearby
ACTIVE EVENTS — Tonga (0)
No active events recorded in Tonga right now.
How to prepare
Full guide ↗Tropical cyclone / storm surge
ENSO shifts where cyclones form and track; some regions see more intense storms and surge.
Before
- Know your evacuation zone and route; reinforce/secure roof, windows and loose objects.
- Prepare your kit, fuel and cash before the storm; agree when you will leave.
- Follow the official storm category and warnings — do not wait for the eye to pass.
During
- Shelter in a small, windowless interior room on the lowest safe floor.
- Stay indoors during the calm "eye" — winds return suddenly from the opposite direction.
- Evacuate early if in a surge zone; surge, not wind, causes most deaths.
After
- Beware downed lines, gas leaks, and flood water; do not sightsee.
- Use generators outdoors only — carbon-monoxide kills.
Flooding
El Niño / La Niña can drive heavy rainfall, river and flash flooding, and landslides.
Before
- Know if you are in a flood-prone or low-lying area; plan a route to higher ground.
- Move valuables and electrics above expected flood level; prepare sandbags if available.
- Charge phones and keep your go-bag ready when heavy rain is forecast.
During
- Turn Around, Don’t Drown — never walk, swim or drive through flood water (15 cm can knock you down, 60 cm floats a car).
- Move to higher ground immediately if told to evacuate; avoid bridges over fast water.
- Stay away from downed power lines; assume water is contaminated.
After
- Return only when authorities say it is safe; watch for weakened structures.
- Do not use wet electrical devices; boil/treat water until declared safe.
- Document damage with photos for aid/insurance.