El Niño / La Niña impact — currently El Niño conditions emerging
El Niño · active now
Drought tendency; cyclone tracks shift.
La Niña
Wetter; higher cyclone risk.
7-day forecast — Vanuatu
Open-MeteoShowery week — rain on 3 days, heaviest Sun (21mm). Keep an umbrella handy; brief downpours can flood streets.
Tue
Drizzle
25° / 19°
💧 59% · 1mm
🌬 23 km/h
Wed
Drizzle
24° / 21°
💧 67% · 2mm
🌬 24 km/h
Thu
Drizzle
24° / 19°
💧 84% · 5mm
🌬 28 km/h
Fri
Drizzle
25° / 20°
💧 76% · 1mm
🌬 31 km/h
Sat
Drizzle
24° / 20°
💧 81% · 6mm
🌬 32 km/h
Sun
Showers
22° / 20°
💧 67% · 21mm
🌬 26 km/h
Mon
Drizzle
25° / 20°
💧 57% · 1mm
🌬 20 km/h
7-day temperature outlook
AI weather ensemble · Vanuatu
Moderate confidence· why?
- Ensemble members strongly agree — the forecast range is tight.
- This region has fewer ground weather stations than the global average, so AI and physics models alike are less precise here.
⚠ Forecasts for this region carry more uncertainty. Global weather models are trained on sensor networks that are sparse here — a known limitation that affects every AI forecast, not just ours. We label it openly so you can weight official local warnings accordingly. We will never show you false confidence to look more polished.
Plan for the upper end of the range and follow official local authorities for confirmed warnings.
Model comparison — Vanuatu
4 models · daily max °C| Model | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 24 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| GFS | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| ICON | — | — | — | — | — |
| GEM | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Spread | ±1 | ±1 | ±1 | ±0 | ±0 |
Spread = warmest−coolest model mean per day. Small spread → models agree (higher confidence); large → genuine uncertainty.
Emergency resources
Vanuatu · call now or find nearby
ACTIVE EVENTS — Vanuatu (0)
No active events recorded in Vanuatu right now.
How to prepare
Full guide ↗Tropical cyclone / storm surge
ENSO shifts where cyclones form and track; some regions see more intense storms and surge.
Before
- Know your evacuation zone and route; reinforce/secure roof, windows and loose objects.
- Prepare your kit, fuel and cash before the storm; agree when you will leave.
- Follow the official storm category and warnings — do not wait for the eye to pass.
During
- Shelter in a small, windowless interior room on the lowest safe floor.
- Stay indoors during the calm "eye" — winds return suddenly from the opposite direction.
- Evacuate early if in a surge zone; surge, not wind, causes most deaths.
After
- Beware downed lines, gas leaks, and flood water; do not sightsee.
- Use generators outdoors only — carbon-monoxide kills.
Flooding
El Niño / La Niña can drive heavy rainfall, river and flash flooding, and landslides.
Before
- Know if you are in a flood-prone or low-lying area; plan a route to higher ground.
- Move valuables and electrics above expected flood level; prepare sandbags if available.
- Charge phones and keep your go-bag ready when heavy rain is forecast.
During
- Turn Around, Don’t Drown — never walk, swim or drive through flood water (15 cm can knock you down, 60 cm floats a car).
- Move to higher ground immediately if told to evacuate; avoid bridges over fast water.
- Stay away from downed power lines; assume water is contaminated.
After
- Return only when authorities say it is safe; watch for weakened structures.
- Do not use wet electrical devices; boil/treat water until declared safe.
- Document damage with photos for aid/insurance.