← Home

South Africa

Drought-prone during El Niño

Southern Africa · -25.75, 28.19

El Niño / La Niña impact — currently El Niño conditions emerging

El Niño · active now

Hot and dry mid-summer; drought hits the maize belt and water supplies.

La Niña

Wetter summer; good harvests but flooding risk.

Global ENSO tracker ↗

7-day forecast — South Africa

Open-Meteo

Showery week — rain on 3 days, heaviest Tue (32mm). Keep an umbrella handy; brief downpours can flood streets.

Sat

Mostly sunny

22° / 9°

💧 0% · 0mm

🌬 11 km/h

Sun

Clear

21° / 9°

💧 0% · 0mm

🌬 13 km/h

Mon

Showers

19° / 6°

💧 78% · 6mm

🌬 23 km/h

Tue

Snow showers

8° / 5°

💧 75% · 32mm

🌬 24 km/h

Wed

Drizzle

11° / 5°

💧 43% · 6mm

🌬 25 km/h

Thu

Drizzle

13° / 6°

💧 18% · 4mm

🌬 19 km/h

Fri

Drizzle

12° / 7°

💧 18% · 1mm

🌬 12 km/h

🌡️

7-day temperature outlook

AI weather ensemble · South Africa

ECMWF · 50 members
Moderate confidence· why?
  • Ensemble members strongly agree — the forecast range is tight.
  • This region has fewer ground weather stations than the global average, so AI and physics models alike are less precise here.

Forecasts for this region carry more uncertainty. Global weather models are trained on sensor networks that are sparse here — a known limitation that affects every AI forecast, not just ours. We label it openly so you can weight official local warnings accordingly. We will never show you false confidence to look more polished.

Plan for the upper end of the range and follow official local authorities for confirmed warnings.

80% range (P10–P90) across all members — how sure, not a single guess.
Tue
22° (2222°)
Wed
22° (2222°)
Thu
25° (2425°)
Fri
23° (2324°)
Sat
22° (2123°)
Sun
22° (2123°)
Mon
19° (1423°)
14°│ marks the most-likely temperature25°

Model comparison — South Africa

4 models · daily max °C
ModelSatSunMonTueWed
ECMWF2221181214
GFS2121191213
ICON23
GEM2222211415
Spread±2±1±3±3±2

Spread = warmest−coolest model mean per day. Small spread → models agree (higher confidence); large → genuine uncertainty.

Emergency resources

South Africa · call now or find nearby

ACTIVE EVENTS — South Africa (1)

  • MINORwildfire
    1h ago
    Active fire — 246 MW

    📍 Maluti a Phofung, South Africa

    ◐ Unconfirmed · single source
    Source: FIRMS · updated 1h ago

How to prepare

Full guide ↗

Drought & water scarcity

El Niño can bring prolonged dry spells, crop failure, water and energy stress, and wildfire conditions.

Before

  • Store water and prioritise drinking/cooking use; fix leaks.
  • Plant drought-tolerant crops; conserve soil moisture (mulching).
  • Track official seasonal forecasts and water-restriction notices.

During

  • Follow water-rationing rules; reuse greywater for plants where safe.
  • Protect livestock with shade and water; reduce herd if advised.
  • Watch for heat and wildfire risk that often accompany drought.

After

  • Rebuild water stores before the next dry season.
  • Assess soil and replant with resilient varieties.

Extreme heat

El Niño years frequently bring record heat, dangerous to health, agriculture and energy.

Before

  • Identify cool places (air-conditioned buildings) you can reach.
  • Check on elderly, infants, outdoor workers and people with chronic illness.
  • Never leave children or pets in parked vehicles.

During

  • Drink water regularly even before you feel thirsty; avoid alcohol and heavy meals.
  • Stay indoors during peak heat; wear light, loose clothing; limit exertion.
  • Know heat-stroke signs (confusion, hot/dry skin, fainting) — call emergency services and cool the person.

After

  • Keep hydrating; watch vulnerable people for delayed heat illness.

Wildfire & smoke

Drought and heat raise wildfire risk; smoke (PM2.5) harms health far from the fire.

Before

  • Create defensible space — clear dry vegetation around buildings.
  • Prepare N95/FFP2 masks and a plan to seal indoor air; ready a go-bag.
  • Sign up for local fire alerts and know multiple evacuation routes.

During

  • Evacuate early when told — fire moves faster than you expect.
  • If trapped by smoke, stay indoors, close windows, run air filtration; wear N95 outdoors.
  • Check live air-quality (AQI) before any outdoor activity.

After

  • Return only when cleared; watch for hotspots, ash and weakened trees.
  • Keep masks on during clean-up; ash can be toxic.